Industry leaders explore the lessons from illicit tobacco and why early action on illicit liquor matters.  What can the rise of illicit tobacco teach us about the future of illicit alcohol? 

That question brought together retailers, law enforcement, illicit trade specialists and industry leaders at MGA’s recent Liquor: The Next Illicit Market – Lessons from Tobacco forum. 

While there was healthy discussion around the scale and trajectory of the illicit alcohol market, one message was clear: organised illicit markets rarely emerge overnight. They develop gradually, and the warning signs are often visible long before the problem becomes deeply entrenched. 

For independent retailers, understanding those warning signs matters. The consequences extend far beyond lost sales. Organised crime, community safety, consumer health and the viability of lawful businesses all become part of the equation. 

The Lessons from Tobacco 

Australia’s experience with illicit tobacco has demonstrated how organised criminal networks can exploit emerging black markets when enforcement laws struggle to keep pace. 

The discussion explored how illicit markets evolve, the role organised crime plays in expanding unlawful supply chains, and why early awareness is critical. Rather than waiting until a problem becomes deeply entrenched, speakers highlighted the importance of recognising warning signs and responding before criminal activity becomes more widespread. 

For retailers, the message was clear: prevention is always easier than recovery. 

When Organised Crime Hits Home 

For Janet Proposch from Longwarry Friendly Grocer in Victoria, the discussion wasn’t theoretical. 

Janet shared the devastating impact organised crime has had on her family business after receiving an extortion note, followed by a ram raid and a series of other criminal incidents. Beyond the significant financial costs and ongoing repairs, she spoke candidly about the emotional toll these events have taken on her family, staff and the wider Longwarry community. 

Her story was a powerful reminder that organised crime doesn’t just target illegal operators. It affects hardworking, law-abiding retailers who simply want to serve their communities. It also reinforced why many independent retailers believe early intervention, stronger enforcement and coordinated government action are essential to preventing similar impacts from emerging in other illicit markets. 

A United Response 

The forum also highlighted the importance of collaboration. 

Representatives from Victoria Police, illicit trade intelligence and industry shared their perspectives on the challenges posed by illicit trade and the need for continued cooperation between retailers, governments and law enforcement agencies. 

While no single organisation can address these issues alone, the discussion reinforced that industry has an important role to play in identifying emerging trends, sharing intelligence and supporting practical policy solutions. 

Enforcement Alone Won’t Solve the Problem 

While stronger enforcement and tougher penalties remain essential, the forum also examined the underlying conditions that allow illicit markets to flourish. 

A recurring theme throughout the discussions was that enforcement alone cannot eliminate illicit trade. Speakers highlighted the need for governments to address the economic drivers that make illegal products attractive to consumers. In particular, concerns were raised that Australia’s continually increasing alcohol excise is widening the price gap between legitimate and illicit products, creating greater opportunities for organised crime to expand its market. 

A balanced approach is needed. Alongside stronger enforcement, coordinated intelligence sharing and tougher action against organised crime, governments must also address the policy settings that are unintentionally fuelling demand for illicit products.  

The lessons from illicit tobacco are clear. Once an illegal market becomes deeply entrenched, it becomes significantly more difficult- and far more costly – to dismantle. Preventing the same outcome in the illicit alcohol market requires governments to act now by tackling both the criminal networks driving illicit trade and the economic conditions that enable them to thrive.